I've Never Seen This....

December Stats vs Last Year

I want to be very clear when I say this:

This has never happened since I’ve been tracking our local market.

For the first time in more than 10 years, the year-over-year median sales price has declined for two consecutive months. Down 3% in November… and then down another 2% in December.

That’s not noise. That’s a signal.

What we’re watching right now is the supply-and-demand pendulum finally swinging — slowly, but decisively — back toward buyers.

And the reason is simple: Mortgage interest rates just can’t seem to come down. When rates stay elevated, buyers hesitate. When buyers hesitate, homes sit longer. Days on Market rise. Inventory builds. And eventually… prices feel the pressure.

Ironically, just before this shift became obvious, we were seeing some genuinely encouraging signs. Over the prior six months, falling rates helped push pending sales higher compared to last year. That momentum showed up clearly in December closings — which jumped 18%, making it the strongest December since 2021. It felt like the market was finally finding its footing again.

Then December happened. Rates began climbing — quietly at first — and demand responded immediately. The streak ended. Contracts dropped 26% from November to December.

At the same time, Days on Market continued to rise. For a while, there was a silver lining: inventory growth had been slowing. For eight straight months, the pace of new supply was decelerating. But this month, that trend reversed. Supply didn’t just grow — it accelerated again. And that brings us to where we are now.

The story of 2026 will be written almost entirely by interest rates. And as of today… they’re inching higher. What happens next depends on whether rates stabilize — or continue to fight the market.

Buyers: You’re gaining leverage, but timing will matter more than price.

Sellers: The market isn’t collapsing — but strategy is no longer optional.

And there’s one critical factor most people aren’t paying attention to yet —Something that could change how this entire year plays out.

I’ll break that down next week.

If you’re planning to buy or sell in 2026, this is the moment to stop reacting — and start planning.

Hit the "Let's Chat" Button Below and Let's Chat about your options! I’ll walk you through what this shift means specifically for your home, your timeline, and your leverage.

Markets don’t turn suddenly. They drift and sway before changing direction.

— Noel

December Market Snapshot (vs. Last Year)

Buyer Demand:  - 2% 

Housing Supply:  + 22%

Median Sales Price:  - 2%

Days on Market: 38 days (vs. 30 days)